Uncertainty and monetary policy in good and bad times: A Replication of the VAR investigation by Bloom (2009)
This paper revisits the well-known VAR evidence on the real effects of uncertainty shocks by Bloom (Econometrica 2009(3): 623-685. doi: 10.3982/ECTA6248). We replicate the results in a narrow sense using Eviews. In a wide sense, we extend his study by working with a smooth transition-VAR framework that allows for business cycle-dependent macroeconomic responses to an uncertainty shock. We find a significantly stronger response of real activity in recessions. Counterfactual simulations point to a greater effectiveness of systematic monetary policy in stabilizing real activity in expansions.
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- Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Gabriela Nodari, 2020. " Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in Good and Bad Times: A Replication of the VAR Investigation by Bloom (2009) ," CESifo Working Paper Series 8497, CESifo.
- Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Gabriela Nodari, 2020. " Uncertainty and monetary policy in good and bad times: A replication of the VAR investigation by Bloom (2009) ," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0261, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
References listed on IDEAS
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- Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Juan Manuel Figueres, 2018. " Economic Policy Uncertainty and Unemployment in the United States: A Nonlinear Approach ," CESifo Working Paper Series 7105, CESifo.
- Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Juan Manuel Figueres, 2017. " Economic Policy Uncertainty and Unemployment in the United States: A Nonlinear Approach ," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2017n02, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
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Citations
- Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Pellegrino, Giovanni, 2021. " Uncertainty shocks and the great recession: Nonlinearities matter ," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
- Haque, Qazi & Magnusson, Leandro M., 2021. " Uncertainty shocks and inflation dynamics in the U.S ," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
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Keywords
JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
NEP fields
- NEP-CBA-2020-09-07 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2020-09-07 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2020-09-07 (Monetary Economics)
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